📉 A Short Report

Markets go up. But not every day.

Just one person's opinion from their home library: no investment qualifications, no authority, not authorised by any regulatory body. Market commentary only, not advice or a recommendation. Shorting is high risk (but super fun).

Inflation lands an hour before the open

📉 A Short Report · Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · evening post

Right call. By 08:00 UK the FTSE had slipped a little, perhaps because inflation came in at 3.5%, its highest since October 2025, which put higher interest rates back on the table.

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How the morning call did

This morning I kept the short on. London ended the day barely changed, so the call is holding: no fall yet, but nothing went against me either. The short stays on, and I'll pull the stop in if the market slips.

The day in brief

Jobs held up. The ONS says unemployment was 4.7% in June to August, down 0.1 points on the quarter. Regular pay grew 3.7% a year. Vacancies fell 2.9% on the quarter, the steepest drop since the start of the year, and the ONS said smaller firms blamed higher labour costs.

Oil eased. Crude fell after reports that Qatari and Pakistani officials had put a new peace proposal to Iran and the US. Those are reports, not a deal, but they lifted London off its lows.

Copper output. Anglo American (AAL LN) said its third-quarter copper production fell 5%, mostly because of weather in Chile, and that it is on track for the year. The other miners slipped with the metal.

After the US close

The Dow had a strong day, while tech shares went nowhere. After the bell, Netflix cut its full-year advertising forecast to about $2.7bn, from about $3bn, and its shares fell in late trading. The OFR Financial Stress Index is below its historical average (reading for 15 Oct 2026). Source: Office of Financial Research, OFR Financial Stress Index, 15 Oct 2026. Our wording; not endorsed by the OFR. The US 10-year Treasury yield was 5.15% and the 2-year 4.77%, on 19 Oct 2026. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, daily par yield curve rates, 19 Oct 2026.

Looking ahead to Asia

Nothing big from Asia overnight.

What could move markets

Inflation, . The ONS figure for September lands an hour before the open. August's was 3.1%. Petrol has been dearer, so I'd guess it's higher this time, but a miss either way could swing London hard in its first minutes.

Government borrowing. Out at the same time. With the Budget a week away, a big overshoot would add to the Chancellor's problems and could push gilt yields up.

Bailey in the afternoon. The Governor speaks tomorrow, after the inflation figure is out.

Source: Office for National Statistics, Labour market overview, UK: October 2026; Anglo American, production report for the third quarter of 2026; Netflix, third-quarter 2026 letter to shareholders; Office for National Statistics, release calendar; Bank of England, upcoming events.

My call

London closed lower again, then bounced in the evening as oil eased. One bounce on a peace report doesn't end a two-day slide, and a hot inflation figure would hurt more than a soft one would help. The bet stays on through the number. A firm open well above today's close would tell me the fall is over. This covers the open only; the morning post makes the call for the day.