📉 A Short Report

Markets go up. But not every day.

Just one person's opinion from their home library: no investment qualifications, no authority, not authorised by any regulatory body. Market commentary only, not advice or a recommendation. Shorting is high risk (but super fun).

UK jobs and pay at 07:00 UK, an hour before the open

📉 A Short Report · Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · morning post

Holding again. The index finished close to where it stood at my call; it looks as if cheaper oil, after reports of a new peace proposal for the Gulf, made up for more selling in the miners. The short carries on into the evening, with the stop ready to tighten on any slide.

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Chart: a broker's CFD price that tracks the FTSE 100, via TradingView. It isn't the official index and can differ slightly, especially outside UK market hours.
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Yesterday's call

Yesterday morning I kept Friday's short running, saying the weekend hadn't taken away the reason for it. The FTSE fell a lot, so that one was right.

Last night's short for the open is marked at 08:00 UK.

Rates

The US 10-year Treasury yield was 5.15% (up 0.06 points on the day) and the 2-year 4.77% (up 0.03 points), on 19 Oct 2026. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, daily par yield curve rates, 19 Oct 2026.

The pound bought about $1.3331 on 19 Oct 2026, little changed on Friday. GBP/USD calculated by us from ECB euro foreign exchange reference rates (source: ECB), 19 Oct 2026; for information only.

Today's diary

UK

  1. UKJobs, pay and vacanciesThe ONS's monthly labour market release. Strong pay growth would add to talk of a Bank of England rate rise, which is bad news for lenders and housebuilders. A weak reading would ease it.

After the US close, Netflix reports, the first of this week's big US tech results. That matters for tomorrow, not today.

Diary: Source: Office for National Statistics, release calendar; Netflix investor relations.

What could move markets

Barclays. Yesterday's Financial Times report about the regulator and Barclays (BARC LN)'s private-credit trades is still the story for UK lenders. Until the bank says something, I'd expect it to weigh on Lloyds (LLOY LN) and NatWest (NWG LN) as well.

New York bounced, London didn't. US tech shares rallied last night, and the chipmakers snapped a long losing run. The broker's price that tracks the FTSE still slipped further after London's close.

Copper. The metal's slide hit Anglo American (AAL LN) and Glencore (GLEN LN) yesterday.

Higher US yields. The US 10-year rose 0.06 points yesterday. When American borrowing costs climb, gilts tend to follow, and that's no help to a UK market waiting on Wednesday's inflation figure.

What could move it next

UK inflation and government borrowing at tomorrow, then Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks in the afternoon.

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury; ECB; Office for National Statistics, release calendar (UK Labour Market, Consumer price inflation and Public sector finances); Bank of England, upcoming events.

My call

Two sessions in and the fall hasn't stopped: the price slipped again after London shut, even as New York rallied. I'm keeping the short on for the day. Pay figures soft enough to cool talk of a rate rise would be the first thing to make me doubt it.