📉 A Short Report

Markets go up. But not every day.

Just one person's opinion from their home library: no investment qualifications, no authority, not authorised by any regulatory body. Market commentary only, not advice or a recommendation. Shorting is high risk (but super fun).

Barclays reports at 07:00 UK, and London is already lower

📉 A Short Report · Thu, 22 Oct 2026 · morning post

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Yesterday's call

Yesterday morning I kept selling through the inflation figure and the Governor's speech. London ended the day almost exactly where it was when I posted, so that one is holding, not wrong, and the short carried on.

Last night's short is holding at 06:00 UK: the price has slipped a little further since I posted, though not by enough to count.

Rates

The US 10-year Treasury yield was 5.13% (up 0.01 points on the day) and the 2-year 4.81% (up 0.02 points), on 21 Oct 2026. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, daily par yield curve rates, 21 Oct 2026.

The pound bought about $1.3402 on 21 Oct 2026, up 0.4% on the day before. GBP/USD calculated by us from ECB euro foreign exchange reference rates (source: ECB), 21 Oct 2026; for information only.

Today's diary

UK US EU

  1. UKBarclays third-quarter results (big one)The biggest name reporting today, alongside Sainsbury's, RELX and LSEG. Banks are a big slice of the index, so the reaction matters.
  2. UKEx-dividend ThursdayShares that go ex-dividend today drop by the payout at the open. It nudges the index down on paper without anyone selling.
  3. UKCBI factory orders surveyHow manufacturers see their order books. Forecasters expect a gloomier reading than last month.
  4. USWeekly jobless claimsNew claims for unemployment benefit. Expected to be little changed; a jump would worry Wall Street.
  5. EUEuro area consumer confidenceA quick read of shoppers' mood on the continent, seen unchanged.

Diary: Source: company results timetables; London Stock Exchange, dividend timetable; CBI; U.S. Department of Labor; European Commission.

What could move markets

A crowded results morning. Barclays (BARC LN) reports its third quarter at 07:00 UK, with Sainsbury's (SBRY LN) half-year figures and updates from RELX (REL LN), LSEG (LSEG LN), IHG (IHG LN) and Rentokil (RTO LN). Higher rates have been kind to bank profits, so the question is whether Barclays says anything about bad debts or the Budget that spoils the mood.

Wall Street's late wobble. New York had a good day: the S&P 500 rose 0.6% and the Nasdaq 1.1% as SpaceX shares jumped. Then Tesla reported. Its figures beat forecasts, but it cut its spending plans and the shares fell in late trading, and a chip equipment maker gave a weak outlook. US futures slipped, and Asia opened lower, led by South Korea's chip stocks.

Oil above $110 again. Crude climbed overnight on reports of a deadly attack on a Saudi oilfield. That helps BP (BP/ LN) and Shell (SHEL LN), which are heavy in the index, so it's the main thing that could hold London up.

The ex-dividend dip. Thursday is when London shares usually go ex-dividend. It knocks a little off the index at the open, which happens to suit a short.

What could move it next

UK retail sales come out at 07:00 UK tomorrow, followed by the first business surveys for October. The Budget is next Wednesday.

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury; ECB; Barclays, J Sainsbury, RELX, LSEG, IHG and Rentokil Initial results timetables; London Stock Exchange, dividend timetable; Tesla, third-quarter 2026 update; Office for National Statistics, release calendar; GOV.UK, Budget 2026 date.

My call

London is lower again before the bell, below where it finished on both Tuesday and Wednesday, and well under where this short began last Friday. Nothing overnight says the slide is done, so I'm keeping the FTSE sold for the day and pulling the loss limit down behind it. If good news from Barclays and dearer oil carry the index back over Monday's finish and it stays there, I'll call the fall over.