Inflation station: US CPI at 08:30 ET (13:30 UK)

📉 A Short Report · Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · published 06:00 UK

Me @ Wed 14 Oct 05:57 UK:Mr. Market @ Wed 14 Oct 16:30 UK:

Chart: a broker's CFD price that tracks the FTSE 100, via TradingView. It isn't the official index and can differ slightly, especially outside UK market hours.

Chart: a broker's CFD price that tracks the Cboe VIX volatility index, via TradingView. It isn't the official index and can differ. VIX® is a trade mark of Cboe Exchange, Inc.; no affiliation.

Yesterday's call

Yesterday I called flat; it fell, so I was wrong. I said: My call: flat today. I don't see a clear downside driver today, so it's not a day to short.

What I saw

Yesterday the FTSE rose, finishing near the bottom of the day. Japan rose firmly overnight, which tends to help miners at the open and makes an early dip less likely. Oil firmed, which helps BP (BP/ LN) and Shell (SHEL LN) and props up the index. A rising line drawn under the recent lows is still holding beneath the price, and that's the biggest obstacle to any drop.

Rates

The US 10-year Treasury yield was 5.21% (down 3bp on the day) and the 2-year 4.79% (down 1bp), on 13 Oct 2026. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, daily par yield curve rates, 13 Oct 2026.

The pound was worth about $1.3247 on 13 Oct 2026 (our calculation from ECB reference rates, up 0.1% on the day before). GBP/USD calculated by us from ECB euro foreign exchange reference rates (source: ECB), 13 Oct 2026; for information only.

Market mood

Financial markets look calm: the OFR Financial Stress Index is below its historical average (reading for 9 Oct 2026). Source: Office of Financial Research, OFR Financial Stress Index, 9 Oct 2026. Our wording; not endorsed by the OFR.

Official news overnight

The ECB put out a release headed "Philip R. Lane: The AI opportunity for Europe" (13 Oct, 19:30 UK). Source: ECB.
The Federal Reserve Board put out a release headed "Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on August 17, September 9, and September 16, 2026" (13 Oct, 19:00 UK). Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Today's diary

08:30 ET (13:30 UK)
USInflation (big one)A hotter number could knock markets down, because it keeps interest rates higher for longer in the US.

Diary: Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

My call

My call: flat. I'm sitting this one out, with nothing I can see pushing it down: a rising line under the price is still intact, and I want it broken before shorting. How sure: very.

Last night I called it down. With what happened overnight, my call is flat.