Tokyo drift: the Nikkei fell 2.3% overnight
📉 A Short Report · Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · published 06:00 UK
Yesterday's call
Nothing to mark yet: this is the first one. From tomorrow every call gets marked right or wrong here, and old ones never get edited.
What I saw
Yesterday the FTSE rose 1.0% to 10,656, closing right at its high, which tells me buyers were in charge at the close, and in the past a break of the previous day's high typically ran another 28 points, so a fall has that to fight. Japan fell 2.3% overnight, which usually weighs on UK miners at the open and makes an early dip more likely. US tech futures fell 0.8%, which points to a softer US open this afternoon and less support for the FTSE late on. Oil fell 0.9%, which weighs on BP (BP/ LN) and Shell (SHEL LN), two of the FTSE's biggest weights. It's sitting just above a rising line at 10,631 that it has bounced off 5 times, which is the main thing standing in the way of a fall.
The numbers
| Market | Last | Move | What it tells me |
|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE | |||
| FTSE 100 (UKX) (last close) | 10,656 | +0.99% | Buyers had the close |
| US markets | |||
| US 500 futures | 7,842 | -0.20% | Too small to matter |
| US Tech 100 futures | 30,650 | -0.80% | Softer US open likely, less support late on |
| VIX (VIX) (US fear gauge) | 15.21 | +2.49% | A little more nervous, helps a dip |
| World markets | |||
| Japan (Nikkei 225 (NKY)) | 67,472 | -2.26% | Weighs on miners at the open |
| Hong Kong (Hang Seng (HSI)) | 24,176 | -0.39% | Weighs on miners at the open |
| Australia (ASX 200 (AS51)) | 8,778 | -0.06% | Too small to matter |
| Brent oil | 105.65 | -0.94% | Weighs on BP and Shell |
| Pound vs dollar | 1.3217 | -0.00% | Too small to matter |
| UK gilts | |||
| UK 10-year gilt yield | 5.45% | about the same | No pressure from rates |
| US rates | |||
| US 10-year Treasury yield | - | - | - |
| US 2-year Treasury yield | - | - | - |
| FTSE level | Price | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Yesterday's high | 10,656 | Price turned within 5 points of here 5 times in the last 20 sessions, mostly turning down from it, last on Wed 30 Sept. Last traded here Mon 12 Oct. In the past, when the FTSE broke the previous day's high, it typically rose another 28 points, and it finished above that high about 6 days in 10. So a clear move above it would argue against a fall today. |
| Yesterday's close | 10,656 | Same price as yesterday's high: it closed right at the top, so buyers finished in charge. |
| Yesterday's low | 10,550 | Price turned within 5 points of here 4 times in the last 20 sessions, last on Fri 9 Oct. Last traded here Mon 12 Oct. In the past, when the FTSE broke the previous day's low, it typically fell another 35 points, and it finished below that low about 5 days in 10. So it's the area I'd expect a fall to head for. |
| Rising line under the recent lows | 10,631 | Price has touched it 5 times since Fri 9 Oct, last on Mon 12 Oct. If it breaks below it, it could slip further. |
| Falling line over the recent highs | 10,640 | Price has touched it 2 times on Mon 12 Oct. Only 2 touches, so I count it as a weak line. Price closed back above it, so it no longer caps rallies. |
Today's diary (UK time)
UK Europe US
- UKShop sales vs a year ago (BRC survey)A stronger figure could push UK shop shares up, and a weak one the other way. The forecast is 0.8%, last time 0.5%.
- UKBank of England's Greene speaks
- EuropeGerman inflation, final figure (vs last month)Hotter inflation? Could knock European shares down, and the FTSE with them, because it keeps interest rates higher for longer. The forecast is 0.6%, last time 0.6%.
- USFed's Waller speaks
- USSmall business mood
- USWeekly jobs count (ADP)My guess is a strong jobs number would knock markets down, because it keeps interest rates higher for longer in the US. Last time it was 23.8K.
- USHome sales
- USFed's Barkin speaks
- USFed's Collins speaks
My call
My call: no down call today. It's sitting just above a rising line at 10,631 that has held 5 times, so I think it's more likely to bounce than break. How sure: very.